Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate solar wind speeds averaging around 700 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods for 03 October. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 04-05 October.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Oct 066
• Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/010-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01