Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible disk is spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the forecast period.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 03 October as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Minor storm periods are also possible at high latitudes. On 04 October, activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled conditions. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05 October.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Oct 066
• Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 012/015-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/10
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/30/25
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01