Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Oct 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 675 (S09W19), a
small H-type sunspot group, produced a few B-class x-ray flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated active
periods.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Oct 088
- Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 090/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/012-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
