Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Oct 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
October 2, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 464 (N05W86) produced a
C7/1f flare with minor centimetric bursts at 02/0656Z. This region
continues to produce mostly minor C-class flares as it approaches
the west limb. Region 471 (S08E42), which continues to develop in
both size and magnetic complexity, produced a C4 flare at 02/1611Z.
Regular plage fluctuations and surge activity were observed in this
region throughout the period. No significant changes or activity
were noted in the remaining active regions.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 471.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
levels at the beginning of the period. Solar wind IMF signatures are
consistent with a transient passage, but solar wind speed has
remained quite low (300 – 400 km/s); consequently, geomagnetic field
impact was minimal.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active

III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 02 Oct 125
  • Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 125/125/120
  • 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/012-005/010-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.