Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Oct 2003
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 464 (N05W86) produced a
C7/1f flare with minor centimetric bursts at 02/0656Z. This region
continues to produce mostly minor C-class flares as it approaches
the west limb. Region 471 (S08E42), which continues to develop in
both size and magnetic complexity, produced a C4 flare at 02/1611Z.
Regular plage fluctuations and surge activity were observed in this
region throughout the period. No significant changes or activity
were noted in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 471.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
levels at the beginning of the period. Solar wind IMF signatures are
consistent with a transient passage, but solar wind speed has
remained quite low (300 – 400 km/s); consequently, geomagnetic field
impact was minimal.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Oct 125
- Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 125/125/120
- 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/012-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
