Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Nov 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1007 (N35W25), a beta magnetic configuration, has eight spots visible in white light. A CME was observed on the west limb at approximately 03:30Z, but is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. Region 1007 has a slight chance of producing a C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (03 – 05 November).

III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Nov 069
• Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 000/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01