Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Nov 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
November 2, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 922 (S14E31), the lesser of the two active regions in the southeast, produced an impulsive C1 X-ray flare at 0423 UTC. The region grew during the day, as did its nearby neighbor Region 921 (S06E16). Region 921 is a moderate sized group of approximately 370 millionths, showing a substantial field of bright plage. Frequent Type 3 radio bursts occurred throughout the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is an increasing probability of an isolated M-class event pending further development in Regions 921 and 922.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Activity increased slightly with the very pronounced crossing of a sector boundary midway though the day. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through the end of the interval.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 02 Nov 088
  • Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 090/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 007/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 005/008-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.