Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Nov 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 922 (S14E31), the lesser of the two active regions in the southeast, produced an impulsive C1 X-ray flare at 0423 UTC. The region grew during the day, as did its nearby neighbor Region 921 (S06E16). Region 921 is a moderate sized group of approximately 370 millionths, showing a substantial field of bright plage. Frequent Type 3 radio bursts occurred throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is an increasing probability of an isolated M-class event pending further development in Regions 921 and 922.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Activity increased slightly with the very pronounced crossing of a sector boundary midway though the day. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through the end of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Nov 088
- Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 090/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 007/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
