Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 2, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 02 2230 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
486 (S17W62) continues to exhibit its very impressive
characteristics by producing another in a series of major events as
it unleashed an X8/2b flare at 02/1725Z. A Tenflare, Type II (with
an estimated shock velocity of 1691 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, along
with strong radio bursts at all frequencies were associated in this
event. Initial SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates another in the sequence
of Earth bound full halo CME’s that this region has produced. An M3
x-ray flare also occurred in this region during the period which
produced an associated Type II radio sweep with a estimated shock
velocity of 1079 km/s and a west limb CME. Consensus indicates that
this region underwent a resurgence in penumbral coverage with
2160 millionths of areal coverage. Several complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic structures remain evident in this group. Region 488
(N08W68) produced minor C-class flare activity today and has
undergone little change during the period. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions were likely due to the continued
elevated solar winds speeds and the occasional southward Bz in the
interplanetary magnetic field. The greater than 10 MeV proton
fluxes reached alert levels at 02/1105Z and was initially believed to
have been from the M3 event earlier in the period (early maximum was
30 pfu). Since the X8 event they have seen a maximum of 797 at
02/2130Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton fluxes have also reached
alert levels due to the X8 event; at 1740 (15 minutes from flare
maximum) they pushed through event threshold and have since seen a
maximum of 49 pfu. A polar cap absorption event is in progress.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels beginning on day
one near the middle of the day and continuing through day two due to
the full halo CME that resulted from the X8 flare today. Day
three may see a return to unsettled to active levels.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

  • Class M 90/90/70
  • Class X 75/75/50
  • Proton 99/75/50
  • PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 02 Nov 190
  • Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 180/170/150
  • 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 016/021
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 015/017
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 080/120-130/160-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/40
  • Minor storm 30/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 30/55/15

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/10/50
  • Minor storm 40/20/30
  • Major-severe storm 40/70/20

SpaceRef staff editor.