Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 953 (S10W17) produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest was a B8 at 02/1602Z. This region is currently classified as a beta magnetic spot group. Region 954 (S06E01) also produced a few low level B-class flares.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 May 087
• Predicted 03 May-05 May 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 02 May 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 005/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01