Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 875 (S12W47) produced a B2 flare at 02/1237Z. Region 879 (N16E07) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are expected on 5 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 May 089
• Predicted 03 May-05 May 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 02 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 003/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 008/010-008/010-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/30
• Minor storm 10/10/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10