Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 May 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 May 02 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 758 (S10E74)
produced a C2.2 flare at 02/0007 UTC. Region 756 (S08W23) continues
to decay; however, the region still exhibits a beta-delta magnetic
configuration. Two CME’s were observed on LASCO imagery. The first
was a full halo at 02/0526 UTC and the second was off the west limb
at 02/1327 UTC. Both CME’s are backside events and are not expected
to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 756.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE decreased from approximately 650 km/s to 500 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 May 112
• Predicted 03 May-05 May 110/110/110
• 90 Day Mean 02 May 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 014/026
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01