Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 2, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 02 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. There has been a number
of C-class events produced by Region 601 (S10W47), with the largest
being a C8.3 on 02 May at 1115 UTC. There was a weak coronal mass
ejection (CME) produced by yesterday’s C9.5, also produced by Region
601, that appears to have an earthward-directed component.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 601 continues to have a slight chance to produce an
M-class x-ray event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind speeds fell to below 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic
field is holding steady northward.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 03 May. A
high-speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole is
likely to graze the Earth’s magnetic field. By 04 May, this should
pass, and magnetic activity should return to unsettled levels. With
the onset of the transient associated with the weak CME, activity
should again increase to active levels with periods of minor
storming for 05 May.

III. Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 02 May 098
  • Predicted 03 May-05 May 100/100/095
  • 90 Day Mean 02 May 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 008/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/020-012/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/35
  • Minor storm 20/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/40
  • Minor storm 30/20/30
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.