Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 May 2003
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 345
(S17W34) produced a long duration M1/Sf flare at 0308Z. This region
has developed in magnetic complexity and is now a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 349 (S13W21) is still the largest
region on the disk and has remained relatively stable over the past
twenty-four hours. Region 344(N15W67) continues its gradual decay
and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 345 and 349 have the potential for
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speed combined with a period of southward Bz
resulted in one period of isolated major storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. On day one,
active conditions are expected during local nighttime hours and the
solar wind velocity is expected to gradually decline. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day three as another coronal hole
rotates into a geo-effective position.
III. Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May
- Class M 60/60/50
- Class X 10/10/05
- Proton 05/05/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 May 144
- Predicted 03 May-05 May 135/130/120
- 90 Day Mean 02 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 029/040
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 023/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/015-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/20/30
- Minor storm 15/10/15
- Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/25/40
- Minor storm 25/15/25
- Major-severe storm 10/05/10
