Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (03 March). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 2 (04 March) with a chance for active levels due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (05 March).

III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Mar 069
• Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 001/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 005/005-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/10
• Minor storm 01/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/15
• Minor storm 05/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01