Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare
during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0659 UTC from departing Region 564
on the west limb at N15. Region 567 (S12W04) is now the largest
group on the disk with area of 140 millionths, but was quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (03-05 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data show
persistence of a high speed wind stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole. There was a gradual overall decline in solar wind
velocity from around 700 km/s down to about 620 km/s during the past
24 hours, suggesting the high speed stream is beginning to wane. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past
24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
03-04 March. Conditions should decline to generally unsettled by 05
March.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Mar 099
- Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 095/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/018
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 018/018
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/30
- Minor storm 25/25/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/40
- Minor storm 30/30/25
- Major-severe storm 20/20/10
