Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Mar 2003

SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A small number of
C-class flares did occur with the largest a C1.3 at 1021 UTC from
Region 292 (S09W78). SXI imagery from GOES-12 shows two new regions
behind the East limb at approximately N15 and S20.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next day,
increasing to unsettled to active levels on days two and three.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Mar 147
• Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 150/150/155
• 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 009/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 012/015-015/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/35
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/45/40
• Minor storm 20/30/30
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10