Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 960 (S07E62) produced three M-class events; an M2.1/Sf at 01/2152 UTC, an M2.5/Sf at 02/0611 UTC, and an M1.0 at 02/1035 UTC. This region is classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with an area of approximately 480 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels with a chance for an X-flare from Region 960.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 03 and 04 June as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective. Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 05 June. Based on the potential for significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun

• Class M 60/60/60
• Class X 15/15/15
• Proton 10/10/10
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Jun 083
• Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 010/015-010/015-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/15
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 10/10/01