Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jun 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jun 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621
(S14E12) contains a mildly complex beta-gamma magnetic
configuration; however, activity was limited to occasional low
B-class flares. A CME was observed to erupt from near the northwest
limb late in the period. Preliminary data indicate no Earth directed
component. The remaining active regions showed no significant
change.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 621.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed remains
elevated due to a large transequatorial coronal hole that has
rotated into a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels with isolated minor
storm periods at high latitudes. The elevated solar wind speed is
expected to subside by 04 June. Expect quiet to unsettled levels by
05 June.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Jun 090
- Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 090/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 014/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 015/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 015/018-008/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/30/25
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/35/30
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
