Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jul 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The majority of today’s
activity came from Region 785 (S22W06), which produced five C-class
events. The largest of these was a C3/Sf at 0316 UTC. Region 785 has
shown steady growth during the past 24 hours. An additional C-flare
(C1 at 1614 UTC) was produced by Region 786 (N10E62). Region 783
(S06E21) is currently the largest group on the disk with an area of
570 millionths, but was stable and quiet. New Region 788 (S07E71)
rotated into view today and is a simple H-type spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class during the
next three days (3-5 July). Of the eight spotted regions on the
disk, 785 and 783 appear to be the most likely sources for future
M-class level activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at active levels due to the
effects of a high speed stream from a coronal hole. However, the
interplanetary magnetic field weakened significantly at about 0700
UTC, and conditions have been quiet to unsettled since then. Solar
wind velocities remain elevated but were declining during the past
24 hours, with typical values of 540-560 km/s by forecast issue
time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled, but there is a continued
chance for occasional active periods during the next two days (03-04
July) as effects from the coronal hole are expected to linger.
Conditions should decline to mostly quiet by the third day (05
July).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Jul 124
- Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 125/125/130
- 90 Day Mean 02 Jul 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 012/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 013/013
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 010/015-010/018-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/20
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/20
- Minor storm 20/20/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
