Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jul 2003

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 397 (N10E13)
produced an M3/1f at 0728 UTC. The group has shown some decay of the
spots in the middle portion of the group and loss of the delta
configuration, but there has been some growth in the trailer spots.
The magnetic classification for the group is now beta-gamma,
reflecting its multiple inversion line structure. Region 400
(N04E58) has rotated more fully into view as a small, D-type region
and managed to produced a C1/Sf.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a fair chance for an isolated
M-class event during the next three days from Region 397.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours.
Solar wind conditions were nominal until about 1800 UTC when an
increase was observed in speed and temperature and a decrease was
observed in density. This might indicate the onset of the
anticipated high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and mostly
active for the second and third days. The increase is expected as a
result of a high speed wind stream associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole. There is a possibility for isolated storm
periods, particularly at the higher latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 135
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 140/145/150
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 014/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 015/020-020/025-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/40
Minor storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/15/15