Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 980 (S08E58) produced a long duration C1 flare at 02/1000Z. An associated CME was observed on LASCO C3 imagery at 02/1006Z. This region is currently classified as a CSO beta sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 980.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes for the forecast period (3-5 January). Elevated activity is forecast due to possible effects from transients associated with the recent C-class flares.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Jan 080
• Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 085/087/090
• 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 006/008-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/15
• Minor storm 01/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01