Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jan 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 933 (S03E40) has produced only B-class activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 933.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active, with a single minor storm period observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed reached a peak of approximately 650 km/s today, and remains elevated at 550 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes on 03 – 04 January due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect mostly unsettled conditions on 05 January.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Jan 090
- Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 090/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 007/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 018/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 015/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/20/15
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/25/20
- Minor storm 20/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
