Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class and
B-class flares occurred in Region 715 (N05E08). Region 715, which
produced an X1 flare on 01 January, continues in a decay phase.
Region 717 (N08W86) is growing in size as it approaches the west
limb, but so far has produced only B-class activity. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from
Region 715. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 717 as
it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. High
speed coronal hole flow, possibly combined with weak transient flow
from the late December CME activity, is responsible for this
disturbance. Solar wind speed increased to over 800 km/s by the
middle of the period and ranged from 700 – 850 km/s for the
remainder of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. The high speed
coronal hole stream in progress now is expected to persist through
03 January. A CME associated with the X1 flare early on 01 January
is expected to impact the geomagnetic field on 03 January. As a
result, minor to major storm periods are possible on 03 and 04
January. Storming should subside by 05 January. Expect quiet to
unsettled levels with isolated active periods on the 5th.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
- Class M 30/25/20
- Class X 05/05/01
- Proton 05/05/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Jan 100
- Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 095/095/090
- 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 010/015
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 020/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 020/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 50/35/25
- Minor storm 25/15/05
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 50/40/30
- Minor storm 30/20/10
- Major-severe storm 20/10/05
