Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
January 2, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 02 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S11E63) has
produced several C-class flares during the last twenty-four hours.
This region continues to grow and is currently 770 millionths of
white light coverage.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 03 January. Active to minor
storm conditions are expected for 04-05 January with activity due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 02 Jan 117
  • Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/120/125
  • 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 012/027
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 010/014
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 010/015-025/030-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/40/35
  • Minor storm 05/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/45/45
  • Minor storm 10/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.