Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active to minor storm levels occurred between 01/2100Z and 02/0600Z, followed by quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period. A high speed stream with wind speeds of approximately 580 to 620 km/s was responsible for the increase in geomagnetic activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on days 1 and 2 (03-04 February) as the high speed stream continues. Conditions are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (05 February).

III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Feb 072
• Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 018/025
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/015-010/015-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/10
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/10
• Minor storm 25/25/05
• Major-severe storm 10/10/01