Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 926 (S09W18) produced two C1/Sf flares at 02/0035Z and 02/0715Z. Region 926 has grown and developed in magnetic complexity since yesterday and is now classified as a beta-gamma group. Region 927 (N09W08) produced a B1 flare at 02/0959Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (3-5 December).

III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Dec 087
• Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 085/085/090
• 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01