Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Dec 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Dec 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 707 (S14W37)
produced a few small B-class flares but was otherwise quiet. Region
708 (N09E01), which produced M-class activity yesterday, was stable
today. Growth in both regions has slowed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 707 and 708.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The coronal hole
induced activity of the past few days is ending. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high. The
Fredericksburg A index for 01 Dec reported in Part V is estimated
from Boulder observations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet. Activity levels may increase by 05 Dec
as another coronal hole high-speed stream rotates into position.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Dec 106
- Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 105/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 011/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-005/005-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
