Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 2, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 02 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. A number of
X-ray events occurred on the southwest limb between 0757Z and 1330Z.
The most likely source of this activity is Region 508 (S19, L=283)
on the west limb. A C7 flare occurred at 0948Z and was followed by
a significant long duration X-ray enhancement that peaked at 1145Z.
This long duration enhancement is the likely source of a greater
than 10 MeV proton event. An M1 flare was also observed at 1308Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of a proton producing flare from
Region 508 beyond the west limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The long
duration X-ray enhancement produced a greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 1505Z and reached a peak flux of 86 pfu at
1730Z. Current flux levels are still above threshold level but in a
slow decline. A polar cap absorption is currently in progress.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 – 04 December. On
05 December activity may increase to active levels due to a coronal
hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began today is expected to end
on 03 December.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec

  • Class M 10/10/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 05/05/01
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 02 Dec 139
  • Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 130/125/120
  • 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 009/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 008/010-008/010-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/25
  • Minor storm 01/01/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/35
  • Minor storm 05/05/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/10

SpaceRef staff editor.