Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. A number of
X-ray events occurred on the southwest limb between 0757Z and 1330Z.
The most likely source of this activity is Region 508 (S19, L=283)
on the west limb. A C7 flare occurred at 0948Z and was followed by
a significant long duration X-ray enhancement that peaked at 1145Z.
This long duration enhancement is the likely source of a greater
than 10 MeV proton event. An M1 flare was also observed at 1308Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of a proton producing flare from
Region 508 beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The long
duration X-ray enhancement produced a greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 1505Z and reached a peak flux of 86 pfu at
1730Z. Current flux levels are still above threshold level but in a
slow decline. A polar cap absorption is currently in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 – 04 December. On
05 December activity may increase to active levels due to a coronal
hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began today is expected to end
on 03 December.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
- Class M 10/10/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 05/05/01
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Dec 139
- Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 130/125/120
- 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 009/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 008/010-008/010-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/25
- Minor storm 01/01/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/35
- Minor storm 05/05/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/10
