Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet 03 – 05 August.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Aug 069
• Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 015/017
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01