Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Aug 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 02 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low to low levels.
There was an isolated C3.9 X-ray event on 02 Aug at 1754Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 05 Aug.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Aug 085
• Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 085/085/090
• 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 009/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 009/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 008/008-005/008-004/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01