Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Aug 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Aug 2003
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 424 (S18E64) has
been the only active region of note, producing only a couple of
C-class x-ray flares over the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 424 (S18E64) continues to pose the greatest threat with
only a slight chance for M-class x-ray flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
The high-speed stream associated with a significant coronal hole has
been steady at approximately 720 km/s, making the geomagnetic field
susceptible to variations in the interplanetary magnetic field. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
very high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. The coronal hole is
in the process of moving out of geoeffective range, and no recurrent
solar features should impact earth for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Aug 111
- Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 118/118/116
- 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 028/037
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 018/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
