Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Apr 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk was void of sunspots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (3-5 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 3-4 April in anticipation of a small increase in solar wind velocity. The increase is forecast based on recurrence and based on observations of an increase at Stereo-B on 31 March. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on the third day (5 April).

III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Apr 071
• Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 071/071/071
• 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 007/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01