Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Apr 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flare activity occurred. Region 987 (S08W89) was quiet and stable as it neared the west limb. Region 988 (S07W63) remained a stable H-type. Minor filament activity was reported in plage Region 989 (S11W28). No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (03 April). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 2 (04 April) with active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. A further increase to active levels is expected on day 3 (05 April) with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream continues.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Apr 076
• Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 075/075/070
• 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 005/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 005/005-007/010-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/40
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/15/50
• Minor storm 01/01/25
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05