Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Apr 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was active with periods of minor storming due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on April 3 and quiet on April 4 & 5.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 02 Apr 071
• Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 072/072/072
• 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 017/030
• Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 014/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 012/012-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/15/15
• Minor storm 20/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/40/20
• Minor storm 25/25/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05