Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Apr 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 02 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 747
(S07W04) continued to show growth in sunspot area. Region 748
(N09E33) went unchanged today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels
throughout the period. Isolated minor storming may be possible on 3
and 4 April. The expected elevated conditions are due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Apr 080
- Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 080/080/090
- 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 004/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 015/025-020/035-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/35/25
- Minor storm 10/20/10
- Major-severe storm 05/15/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/35
- Minor storm 20/35/15
- Major-severe storm 10/20/10
