Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Apr 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
582 (N14W35) continues to decay and has lost the gamma magnetic
structure in the leading portion of the region. Region 587 (S13E11)
has been in a steady growth phase in sunspot area and produced a low
level B-class flare today. Region 581 (S05W41) and 588 (S12E64)
both produced low level B-class flares as well. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 587 has the potential of producing a low level
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 3 April. A shock
passage from the long duration C3 flare that occurred on 31 March is
expected to arrive on 4 April. Active to minor storm levels are
possible with the shock passage. On 5 April active to minor storm
levels are also expected due to a recurrent co-rotating interaction
region.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Apr 108
- Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 105/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 002/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 005/007-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/30/30
- Minor storm 01/20/20
- Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/45/45
- Minor storm 05/25/25
- Major-severe storm 01/10/10
