Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 02 Apr 2003
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. There were 4 minor
C-class flares from Regions 321 (N07W40) and 324 (S12W21).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from Regions
321 (N07W40), 323 (S07W56), 324 (S12W21), or 325 (N10E04).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The high
speed stream that began on 30 March has gained slightly in strength
to nearly 580 km/sec. Intermittently southward Bz has
generated disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor-storm levels due to the continuing
high speed stream, and potential for southward Bz. The high speed
stream should diminish tomorrow, and the geomagnetic field should
end the day at quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 02 Apr 158
- Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 155/155/150
- 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 011/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 021/019
- Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/30/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/40/35
- Minor storm 20/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
