Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 906 (S09W65) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray event that occurred at 01/0506Z. Analysis in white light indicates that the sunspot growth rate has slowed and the region is classified as a Dso beta group. Region 905 (S08W81) has shown steady decay over the period and has been classified an Hax alpha sunspot group. Updated LASCO imagery depicts a CME resulting from yesterday’s B7 x-ray flare that does not appear to be Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very to low levels. Region 906 has the potential to produce C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A chance for active to isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 03 September due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Sep 077
• Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 006/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 008/010-012/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/20
• Minor storm 05/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/35/25
• Minor storm 05/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/10/05