Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Sep 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
September 2, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 01 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Sep 2005
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 806 (S16E07)
continues to decay and is now an Alpha class magnetic group. Region
803 (N10W26) is now a plage region without spots. A large, bright
full halo CME first seen in LASCO imagery at 31/2230 UTC was
determined to have occurred on the far side of the sun.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event
from region 806.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Minor
to major storm periods occurred between 31/2100 to 01/0600 UTC in
response to the corotating interaction region that became
geoeffective after 31/1000 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 2 September.
Isolated major storming is possible due to the arrival of the full
halo CME associated with the long duration C2 flare on 31 August.
Predominantly active conditions are expected on 3 September,
decreasing to unsettled on 4 September.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Sep 079
  • Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 017/036
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 022/030
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 025/030-020/025-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 45/35/15
  • Minor storm 25/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/20
  • Minor storm 30/25/10
  • Major-severe storm 20/15/05

SpaceRef staff editor.