Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Sep 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 01 2203 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Sep 2005
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 806 (S16E07)
continues to decay and is now an Alpha class magnetic group. Region
803 (N10W26) is now a plage region without spots. A large, bright
full halo CME first seen in LASCO imagery at 31/2230 UTC was
determined to have occurred on the far side of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event
from region 806.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Minor
to major storm periods occurred between 31/2100 to 01/0600 UTC in
response to the corotating interaction region that became
geoeffective after 31/1000 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 2 September.
Isolated major storming is possible due to the arrival of the full
halo CME associated with the long duration C2 flare on 31 August.
Predominantly active conditions are expected on 3 September,
decreasing to unsettled on 4 September.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Sep 079
- Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 080/080/085
- 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 017/036
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 022/030
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 025/030-020/025-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 45/35/15
- Minor storm 25/20/10
- Major-severe storm 15/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/20
- Minor storm 30/25/10
- Major-severe storm 20/15/05