Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Sep 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Sep 01 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A faint full-halo
CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 1255Z, although the
CME is most likely backsided. New Region 667 (S09E76) is rotating
onto the visible disk from the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 03 September, isolated active
conditions are possible due to a glancing blow from a CME shock
associated with the M1.4 flare from Region 663 on the 31 August at
0538Z.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Sep 090
- Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 100/110/110
- 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 014/028
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 005/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/20/15
- Minor storm 01/10/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/20
- Minor storm 05/10/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
