Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Sep 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
September 1, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 444 (N08W60)
produced a B4.1 at 01/1411 UTC, optically correlated with SXI
imagery. No active regions have shown any significant changes. A
17-degree filament erupted near N23W60 sometime between 01/0045 and
01/1301 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 448 (N20W20) and 449 (S16E13) may produce
isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to active levels, due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole moving
into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed at ACE increased to
500 km/s during the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions, as a coronal hole continues to move into geoeffective

III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Sep 108
  • Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 115/115/125
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/016
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 026/030-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/20
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/40/40
  • Minor storm 25/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 20/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.