Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Sep 2003
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 444 (N08W60)
produced a B4.1 at 01/1411 UTC, optically correlated with SXI
imagery. No active regions have shown any significant changes. A
17-degree filament erupted near N23W60 sometime between 01/0045 and
01/1301 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 448 (N20W20) and 449 (S16E13) may produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to active levels, due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole moving
into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed at ACE increased to
500 km/s during the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions, as a coronal hole continues to move into geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Sep 108
- Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 115/115/125
- 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/016
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 026/030-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/20
- Minor storm 20/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/40/40
- Minor storm 25/20/15
- Major-severe storm 20/15/15
