Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft continued to rise through the last 24 hours as the coronal hole high speed stream approaches. Speeds are averaging around 600 km/s with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz ranging between +/- 7 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm levels at mid latitudes, and isolated major storm periods at high latitudes for 02 October. Activity is expected due to the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected for 03 – 04 October as the high speed stream continues to be geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Oct 066
• Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 020/025-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/10/10
• Minor storm 25/05/05
• Major-severe storm 10/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/20/15
• Minor storm 30/10/10
• Major-severe storm 15/05/01