Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Oct 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
October 1, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Oct 2007


Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 October. On 03 October, activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. There will also be a chance for brief minor storm periods at high latitudes. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 04 October as the high-speed stream subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Oct 068
  • Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 068/068/067
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 011/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 007/010-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/30/25
  • Minor storm 01/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/35/30
  • Minor storm 05/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.