Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Oct 078
• Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 009/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 018/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/008-006/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01