Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Oct 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
October 2, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Oct 01 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 812 (S03W33) is now an H-alpha plage without spots. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 01 Oct 072
  • Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 070/075/080
  • 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 006/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 008/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 008/010-005/010-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.