Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Oct 2003
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 464 (N05W73)
produced an M1/1f flare at 01/0451Z. Several other minor C-class
flares were observed from this F-type, beta-gamma group as it
approaches the west limb. A long duration C1 flare and filament
eruption were observed in Region 470 (S12E18) at 01/1952Z. Region
471 (S08E53), a moderate size group with some magnetic complexity,
produced considerable surging and plage fluctuations, but no
significant flare activity. New Region 472 (S23W02) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from
Regions 464 or 471.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Extended periods of
southward IMF were observed this period, but the potential impact on
the geomagnetic field was offset by the very low solar wind speeds
(260 -300 km/s).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
- Class M 30/20/15
- Class X 05/05/01
- Proton 05/05/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Oct 137
- Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 135/130/125
- 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 003/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 010/015-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/10
- Minor storm 05/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
