Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity continued very low. Region 921 (S07E30) grew in white light and h-alpha to be a moderate-sized sunspot group of approximately 250 millionths. It also shows a degree of magnetic complexity with mixed polarities within its spots. It has been quiet to this point, however.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with a C-class flare from Region 921 distinctly possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Energetic electrons at geosynchronous orbit were again high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled throughout the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Nov 087
• Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 090/090/095
• 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 005/005-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05