Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Nov 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Nov 01 2204 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 818 (S08E19) and 819 (S09E12) have not changed much over the past 24 hours, and maintain a relatively simple beta magnetic configuration. A large plage field associated with old Region 814 (S8, L=228) has rotated into view on the southeast limb, but no sunspots are visible.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions occurred early in the period following an extended episode of southward IMF Bz. Solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 02 and 03 November. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on 04 November as a large recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 01 Nov 077
- Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 005/008-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/30
- Minor storm 05/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/35
- Minor storm 10/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/10
