Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 May 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (02 May ). Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on days two and three (03-04 May), with isolated minor storm conditions possible at high latitudes, due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 May 069
• Predicted 02 May-04 May 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 01 May 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 004/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 008/010-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/30
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/35
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05