Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 May 2003

By SpaceRef Editor

May 1, 2003

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S14W06)
produced numerous C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf
flare at 01/1143Z. This region continues rapid growth and is now
over 1000 millionths area coverage in white light. Increasing
magnetic complexity was seen in the intermediate spots but the
region remains a beta-gamma spot group. Region 344 (N15W54)
continues its gradual decay phase but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. A 16 degree disappearing solar filament
lifted off the disk near N12E48 at 01/1430Z. No CME was observed
with this DSF. One new region was numbered today, Region 352
(S24E43).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 349 is expected to produce C-class flares and
has the potential for M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speeds continue to be over 600 km/s. Periods of
southward Bz combined with the elevated wind speed has produce minor
storming and one period of major storm levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Elevated solar
wind speed is expected to continue through day one of the period
with active to minor storm levels expected. On day two and day
three, activity should return to quiet to isolated active levels.

III. Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May