Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 01 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (02 – 03 March). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3 (04 March) with a chance for active levels due to a coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 01 Mar 069
• Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 003/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/15
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 01/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05